SLM Corp (SLM)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$27.08+2.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SLM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -17.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
SLM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On July 23, 2026, SLM Corporation (the “Company”) reported its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release and related earnings results were made available on www.SallieMae.com/investors, and are also furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto and incorporated by reference herein, is bein…
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks show a strong plan for returns. Management has confidence in this.
Supportive ifShare buybacks announced or done are over the remaining $242 million.
Worry ifNo more share buybacks are planned or done in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This tender offer shows SLM's focus on managing its debt. Its financial impact is important for investors.
Watch forA reduction in outstanding debt reported in Q3 earnings.
Also watch forNo change in outstanding debt levels reported in Q3 earnings.
Why it matters: Higher non-interest expenses may show cost management problems. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNon-interest costs are above $195 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNon-interest expenses are $195 million or lower in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout is key for investor trust and shows financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says the dividend payout will stay the same or go up soon.
Worry ifManagement says there will be a cut or pause in the dividend.
Why it matters: This report will show how SLM is performing amid recent changes. Key metrics will be revealed.
Watch forEarnings show more revenue or better ways to use capital.
Also watch forEarnings show less revenue or no better ways to use capital.
Why it matters: Finishing this tender offer shows good debt management. It helps keep finances stable.
Supportive ifThe company finishes the tender offer for its 3.125% senior notes by May 12, 2026.
Worry ifThe tender offer is not finished by the set expiration date.
Why it matters: This debt issuance is key for SLM's capital strategy. Its effects on financial health will be closely watched.
Watch forQ3 earnings show better cash flow or capital use.
Also watch forQ3 earnings show no change in cash flow or capital use.
Why it matters: This debt issuance can affect SLM's ability to allocate capital effectively. It is crucial for future growth.
Watch forThere are positive updates on how the $500 million debt is used for growth.
Also watch forManagement says the debt issuance has not helped with capital use or growth.
Why it matters: These changes could greatly increase Sallie Mae's loan originations and market share.
Supportive ifLoan originations increase by 70% compared to previous years due to the reforms.
Worry ifLoan originations do not rise much and stay flat or go down.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can impact SLM's cost of funds and loan demand.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates or hints at future increases.
Also watch forFOMC keeps current interest rates or hints at no increases.
Why it matters: These changes may greatly impact SLM's loans and market position.
Watch forNew federal changes may raise yearly loans by $4.5 to $5 billion.
Also watch forChanges are delayed or altered, lowering expected growth in loans.
Why it matters: Stable or better rates show good loan performance and risk management.
Supportive if30+ day delinquency rates stay below 3% for two quarters in a row.
Worry if30+ day delinquency rates go above 3% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Growth in loan originations is key for SLM's revenue. A strong result shows demand for education loans.
Supportive ifPrivate education loans grow by more than 5% each year.
Worry ifLoan originations grow year over year by less than 5%.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may mean worse credit quality. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifNet charge-offs in Q3 exceed $126 million.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs in Q3 are $126 million or lower.
Why it matters: The cost of funds affects profitability. A rise could squeeze margins and impact earnings.
Worry ifCost of funds rises above 4.22% in Q3.
Less concerning ifCost of funds stays at or below 4.22%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,950 loss on $10,000 · 39.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.