Steel Dynamics (STLD)
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-07-07
$229.62+1.12%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track STLD free→Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Steel Dynamics sells more steel with record shipments of 3.6 million tons. Orders are 38% higher than last year. Analysts expect earnings per share near $3.53 next quarter. The company owns all of New Process Steel, improving control.
Steel Dynamics cut its earnings guidance recently. Margin expansion may slow due to lower EPS outlook. AI-related capital spending problems could hurt growth. The steel sector faces headwinds and volatile management.
The price is about 1% below our fair value near $230. Analysts expect 14.5% revenue growth. Our fair value is 15% below the Street median, reflecting caution.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $3.51 per share next quarter
Breaks if: Significant AI capex failures or worsening macro conditions
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Ownership stake falls below 100%
Breaks if: Steel shipments fall below 3.6 million tons or backlog growth below 20% YoY
Focus on improving steel shipments, pricing, and order backlog supported by domestic trade actions, manufacturing onshoring, infrastructure funding, and regional supply chain trends.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Steel shipments reached record 3.6 million tons in 2026-Q1 with a customer order backlog over 38% higher year-over-year. Management consistently emphasized strengthening domestic steel demand supported by trade actions and infrastructure funding, showing delivering progress.
“Record steel shipments of 3.6 million tons and underlying steel demand strengthened with backlogs increasing over 38% year-over-year.”
“Record steel shipments of 13.7 million tons and improved flat rolled steel market environment supported by domestic trade actions and infrastructure funding.”
“Record steel shipments of 3.6 million tons and improved demand supported by manufacturing onshoring and infrastructure program funding.”
“Steel pricing stabilized at higher levels with expanded margins and stronger shipments from long products steel operations.”
“Record steel shipments of 3.5 million tons and improved steel demand with customer orders rebounding and backlogs increasing.”
“Stable underlying domestic steel demand supported by construction, automotive, industrial, and energy sectors.”
“Steel shipments of 3.2 million tons with steady demand and stabilized scrap prices resulting in improved flat rolled steel prices.”