Seagate Technology (STX)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-07-07

$827.64-4.68%

Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change

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The thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Secular growth

The bull case

Seagate grows revenue from AI storage demand. Revenue hit $3.11B in 2026-Q3. Profit per share is guided to $5.0 next quarter. Cash flow stays strong at $1.1B in 2026-Q3.

The bear case

AI storage demand may slow due to oversupply fears. Cash returns to shareholders are mixed. The stock is down 24% from its high.

What's priced in

The price is about 45% above our fair value near $572. Analysts expect 52% revenue growth. Our fair value is 33% below the Street median of $850.

What has to stay true

Revenue from AI-driven storage demandUnder Pressure
Revenue Growthprimary>= $3.11 billion · 2026-Q3 (guidance)
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $2.9 billion in 2026-Q3
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Drive profitable growth through AI-driven storage demandGrowth
  Focus on leveraging AI applications to amplify data creation and support sustained storage demand.
  On Track
  Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.16 billion in 2025-Q3 to $3.11 billion in 2026-Q3, indicating progress in leveraging AI-driven demand. The trajectory is delivering on the growth strategy.
  Revenue grew from $2.16 billion in 2025-Q3 to $3.11 billion in 2026-Q3
Cash flow from operationsIntact
Cash Flowsupporting>= $1.1 billion · 2026-Q3 (qualitative)
Breaks if: Cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in 2026-Q3
Are they delivering?Mixed this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Maintain strong cash flow and shareholder returnsCapital allocation
  Continue to generate strong cash flow and return value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
  Mixed
  Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash flow from operations was $1.1 billion in 2026-Q3, and $191 million was returned to shareholders, indicating consistent delivery on cash flow and shareholder return commitments.
EPS for next quarterIntact
Marginprimary>= $5.0 per share · 2026-Q4 (guidance)
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $4.8 next quarter
Product innovation via areal density improvementsUnder Pressure
Competitive MoatsupportingSustain areal density improvements to support product strategy · next 4 quarters (qualitative)
Breaks if: No progress in areal density innovation reported next year
Are they delivering?Mixed this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Enhance product strategy with areal density-driven innovationProduct
  Focus on product innovation through areal density improvements to deliver higher-capacity storage solutions.
  Mixed

Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.

Read the full Outlook — the long-form 1–3 year hold read

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.