Smurfit Westrock (SW)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-07-07
$44.99-1.42%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $44.99. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45 SW trades at 26× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median, and our $45 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $50–$57. Note: our $45 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($50–$57). Not investment advice.
$50.00 – $57.00 (median $53.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-23
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $53.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $31.33 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $17.51 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $22.37 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $36.26 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $87.59 | 14.3 | 7.96 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $62.35 | 32.1 | 1.94 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $39.96 | 23.5 | 1.70 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $124.53 | 2.1 | 59.38 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $47.16 | 27.7 | 1.70 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $27.46 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $43.32 | 25.5 | 1.70 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $38.25 | 23.5 | 1.63 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $78.43 | 32.1 | 2.44 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $60.78 | 23.5 | 2.59 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $139.60 | 2.1 | 66.57 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $71.73 | 27.7 | 2.59 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $65.88 | 25.5 | 2.59 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $91.40 | 32.1 | 2.85 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $80.38 | 23.5 | 3.42 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $150.40 | 2.1 | 71.72 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $94.86 | 27.7 | 3.42 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $87.13 | 25.5 | 3.42 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.