Smurfit Westrock (SW)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.83+1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filings.
Why it matters: The outcome of the LSE review could impact investor confidence and stock liquidity. A delisting could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifManagement confirms they will continue on the LSE with good updates.
Less concerning ifManagement says they will delist from the LSE.
Why it matters: Closure updates will show how well the company is cutting costs and using its assets.
Watch forThey announced more mill closures that match their cost-cutting goals.
Also watch forNo news on mill closures or delays in planned closures.
Why it matters: The review's result could affect market access. It may also change how investors see the company.
Watch forAnnouncement of a decision to remain listed on the LSE.
Also watch forAnnouncement of plans to delist from the LSE.
Why it matters: Growth in North America is important. It affects the company's performance and future plans.
Supportive ifNorth American net sales show an increase from $4,407 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifNorth American net sales decline further from $4,407 million in Q1 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$174 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $406 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,129 loss on $10,000 · 31.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Closure updates will show how well the company manages costs and assets.
Watch forThey announced the closure of the first UK mill and progress on more closures.
Also watch forNo updates on closures or delays in the planned closures.
Why it matters: A higher net income margin means better control of costs. It also shows stronger pricing power.
Supportive ifNet income margin for Q2 reported above 1.3%.
Worry ifNet income margin for Q2 reported below 1.3%.
Why it matters: Managing capital spending is important. Changes can impact future growth.
Watch forManagement announces they will spend less on capital in the next quarters.
Also watch forManagement raises their capital spending plans a lot for the next quarters.
Why it matters: Higher containerboard prices can raise revenue and profits. This is true in North America.
Supportive ifNew containerboard price increases of $30 per ton have been put in place.
Worry ifNo new containerboard price increases are planned for the next few months.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show a strong recovery from Q2. It would support management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was at or above $1.3 billion.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $1.1 billion.