Smurfit Westrock (SW)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.19+4.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filings.
Why it matters: The company says it faced about $700 million in added freight and energy costs in 2026. Price gains that cover those costs would ease pressure on earnings.
Watch forIn 2027, price gains cover higher freight and energy costs. Adjusted EBITDA margin tops Q3's 14.8%.
Also watch forIn 2027, higher freight and energy costs still exceed price gains. Adjusted EBITDA margin is 14.8% or less.
Why it matters: The Chile deal would expand Smurfit Westrock's Latin American reach. The region's Q3 adjusted EBITDA was higher than a year ago.
Supportive ifThe company says the CMPC Chile containerboard asset deal is closed.
Worry ifThe company says the deal ended or remains unclosed past its stated timeline.
Why it matters: Management cut its 2026 estimate from $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion to about $4.7 billion. Meeting that estimate would show costs are easing or price gains are helping.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA is at least $4.7 billion.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA is less than $4.7 billion.
Why it matters: The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.4523 per share. Payment on the stated date would confirm the announced cash return.
Supportive ifThe company pays $0.4523 per share on December 10, 2026, to holders recorded on November 13.
Worry ifThe company says it will cut, delay, or cancel the $0.4523 dividend before payment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $390 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,129 loss on $10,000 · 31.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.