Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Smurfit Westrock (SW)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.19+4.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.50 → 3.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver adjusted EBITDA near $5.15 billion in fiscal 2026 | Smurfit Westrock aims to deliver adjusted EBITDA near $5.15 billion in 2026. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $5.0 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SW is a durable-premium business with robust earnings quality, stable management, and support from a favorable sector backdrop. Its multi-year view is intact, though recent results are neutral and operating risks are elevated.
SW trades at a substantial premium to peers, tied to expectations that its business can sustain durable performance. The valuation signal is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but the expectations gap is slightly negative, leaving limited room for execution to disappoint.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and a 2026 full-year Adjusted EBITDA estimate below the prior range point to pressure on results. In the latest quarter, revenue rose year over year, but Adjusted EBITDA and North American segment profit and margin fell, while management’s operations and cost-recovery priorities remain behind.
A guidance cut on the next call would deepen concerns as estimates are already under pressure. Over the multi-year view, progress on cost recovery, operations, and North American performance matters; sector bellwethers’ results will also show whether the Materials tailwind persists or fades.
The long-term thesis remains intact, but near-term execution is weak and the valuation premium makes delivery important. The 1-to-3-year view hinges on improved operating results, credible guidance, and continued sector support. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Smurfit Westrock aims to deliver adjusted EBITDA near $5.15 billion in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Capex exceeds $2.6 billion or falls below $2.2 billion in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $514M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.45 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026514,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize or grow North American net sales above $4.4 billion per quarter | North American sales, its largest market, remain a key focus with $4.4 billion in Q1. | Improving | North American sales decline below $4.2 billion per quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.37 → $3.26 · observed estimates
$33.62B → $34.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.37 | $33,620,893,892 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.36 | $33,624,070,690 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.36 | $33,624,070,690 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.37 | $33,620,893,892 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.40 | $33,640,869,053 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.40 | $33,640,869,053 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.39 | $33,648,813,250 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.28 | $33,804,799,870 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.37 | $33,833,108,722 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.34 | $33,899,172,050 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.40 | $33,857,810,693 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.40 | $33,857,810,693 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.40 | $33,857,810,693 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.36 | $33,911,451,020 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.41 | $33,868,452,463 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.36 | $33,959,010,010 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.41 | $33,868,452,463 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.41 | $33,868,452,463 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.41 | $33,868,452,463 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.41 | $33,868,452,463 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.41 | $33,868,452,463 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.41 | $33,868,452,463 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.41 | $33,868,452,463 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.41 | $33,868,452,463 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.41 | $33,868,452,463 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.43 | $34,006,960,919 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.43 | $34,006,960,919 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.43 | $34,006,960,919 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.43 | $34,006,960,919 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.43 | $34,006,960,919 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.43 | $34,006,960,919 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.45 | $34,053,047,586 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.45 | $34,053,047,586 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.45 | $34,053,047,586 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.45 | $34,046,030,274 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.46 | $34,066,062,741 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.46 | $34,066,062,741 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.46 | $34,066,062,741 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.46 | $34,066,062,740 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.46 | $33,996,163,329 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.46 | $33,996,163,329 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.48 | $34,025,871,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.48 | $34,025,871,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.48 | $34,025,871,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.48 | $34,025,871,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.48 | $34,025,871,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.48 | $34,025,871,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.48 | $34,025,871,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.48 | $34,025,871,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.48 | $34,025,871,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.48 | $34,025,871,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.50 | $34,071,665,594 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.50 | $34,071,665,594 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.50 | $34,071,665,594 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.50 | $34,071,665,594 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.50 | $34,071,665,594 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.50 | $34,071,665,594 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.50 | $34,071,665,594 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.50 | $34,071,665,594 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.50 | $34,071,665,594 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.49 | $34,087,975,974 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.50 | $34,126,974,258 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.48 | $34,144,647,124 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.49 | $34,184,075,695 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.49 | $34,184,075,695 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.49 | $34,184,075,695 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.49 | $34,184,075,695 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.49 | $34,184,075,695 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.49 | $34,184,075,695 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.52 | $34,252,887,152 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.56 | $34,396,457,158 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.56 | $34,396,457,158 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.56 | $34,396,457,158 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.56 | $34,396,457,158 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.57 | $34,431,528,587 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.57 | $34,431,528,587 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.57 | $34,459,104,555 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.57 | $34,533,207,383 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.59 | $34,667,377,181 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.59 | $34,667,377,181 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.59 | $34,667,377,181 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.59 | $34,667,377,181 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.59 | $34,667,377,181 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.59 | $34,667,377,181 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.59 | $34,667,377,181 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.34 | $34,491,356,749 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.30 | $34,482,427,421 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.30 | $34,482,427,421 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.30 | $34,482,427,421 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.30 | $34,482,427,421 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.28 | $34,532,487,241 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.26 | $34,532,487,241 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.