Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-07-08
$394.35-2.09%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
Reading TPL? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track TPL free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-07-08
Reading TPL? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track TPL free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Texas Pacific Land grows revenue about 20% yearly, with $237 million guided for 2026-Q2. Free cash flow is strong, expected at $136 million next quarter and $380 million for 2025 full year. The company is expanding through strategic acquisitions and new water and data center businesses. Profitability is solid with EPS guidance at $2.07 for 2026-Q2.
Revenue growth is uneven, with a recent drop from $203 million to $141 million in late 2025. Profit margins and cash flow could weaken if acquisitions do not deliver. The stock trades at a high PE of 37, above peers, risking multiple contraction if growth slows.
The price is about 33% below our fair value near $616, reflecting cautious optimism. Analysts expect about 20% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance, but recent estimate revisions are slightly down.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.80 in 2026-Q2
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $120 million in 2026-Q2
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $200 million in 2026-Q2
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management is committed to enhancing revenue growth through various initiatives.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management is focused on enhancing revenue growth, with guidance for 2026-Q2 at $236.8 million. Despite this focus, revenue has shown variability, with a decline from $203.1 million in 2025-Q3 to $141.1 million in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving consistent growth.
“Management has reiterated the goal of enhancing revenue growth.”
Breaks if: No meaningful acquisitions or growth from acquisitions in next 4 quarters
Management aims to enhance growth through strategic acquisitions.