United Airlines Holdings (UAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-07-08
$126.22-1.63%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track UAL free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
United Airlines keeps growing revenue about 10% a year. Profit per share is expected near $1.25 next quarter. Free cash flow should stay around $2.7 billion in 2026. Cheaper fuel and more international travel support earnings.
Fuel costs and legal issues could hurt profits. Operating cash flow was negative in late 2025. Capacity cuts may signal weaker demand. Earnings growth could slow if travel drops.
The price is about 38% below our fair value near $207. Analysts expect 10% revenue growth. Our view is more optimistic than the Street's median target of $153.
Breaks if: Capacity reduction target not met by end of 2026
Reduce scheduled domestic capacity by 4 percentage points.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS guidance midpoint falls below $1.0 next quarter
Focus on maintaining strong earnings performance in the face of economic headwinds.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net income was $1.351B in 2025-Q4, indicating a focus on maintaining earnings despite challenges. However, revenue declined from $15.225B in 2025-Q3 to $14.063B in 2025-Q4, showing mixed results in achieving resilient earnings.
“Management reiterated the focus on resilient earnings despite macro challenges.”
“The company aims to maintain earnings resilience amid economic uncertainties.”
“Resilient earnings remain a priority despite macroeconomic pressures.”
“Focus on achieving resilient earnings despite macro challenges.”
“Management is committed to resilient earnings despite macro challenges.”
“Achieving resilient earnings is a key focus amid macro challenges.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $2.0 billion in 2026
Maintain free cash flow levels comparable to previous years.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow guidance low is $2.7B for 2026, indicating management's expectation to maintain similar levels. However, cash from operating activities was negative $6.475B in 2025-Q4, suggesting challenges in achieving this target.
“Management expects to generate a similar level of free cash flow in 2026.”
“The company aims to maintain free cash flow levels in 2026.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year
Focus on maintaining strong earnings performance in the face of economic headwinds.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net income was $1.351B in 2025-Q4, indicating a focus on maintaining earnings despite challenges. However, revenue declined from $15.225B in 2025-Q3 to $14.063B in 2025-Q4, showing mixed results in achieving resilient earnings.
“Management reiterated the focus on resilient earnings despite macro challenges.”
“The company aims to maintain earnings resilience amid economic uncertainties.”
“Resilient earnings remain a priority despite macroeconomic pressures.”
“Focus on achieving resilient earnings despite macro challenges.”
“Management is committed to resilient earnings despite macro challenges.”
“Achieving resilient earnings is a key focus amid macro challenges.”