Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-07-08
$455.11+0.29%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track ULTA free→Ulta Beauty grows revenue about 6% to 7% yearly, supported by partnerships and new store leases. Profit margins are stable near 12%, and capital spending is focused between $400M and $450M. Recent earnings beats show execution strength. Flexible payment options and Bath & Body Works partnership boost sales.
Ulta faces risks from leaving Target and rising competition, which may slow revenue growth below targets. The recent soft guidance and market selloff reflect concerns about sustaining growth. Profit margins could compress if costs rise or sales weaken.
The price is about 13% below our fair value near $523, reflecting cautious views on growth. Analysts expect 13% revenue growth, slightly above management's 6-7% target. Our fair value is well below the Street median, signaling a more conservative outlook.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $450M or falls below $400M significantly
Ulta Beauty plans to allocate capital expenditures between $400 million and $450 million for fiscal 2026.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capex guidance narrowed from $425 million-$500 million to $400 million-$450 million, indicating a more focused capital allocation strategy. The trajectory shows alignment with the revised capex range.
“Capital expenditures $400 million to $450 million.”
“Capital expenditures $425 million to $500 million.”
Breaks if: Significant loss of market share or partnership failures
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 11.9%
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26
Ulta Beauty aims to achieve a revenue growth rate of 6% to 7% for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $2,848.4M in 2025-Q1 to $3,163.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 6% to 7% growth target. The trajectory is delivering on the stated priority.
“The Company has updated its outlook for fiscal 2026 with net sales growth of 6.0% to 7.0%.”
“Updated Fiscal 2025 Outlook Net sales Approximately $12.3 billion.”
“Our outlook for the remainder of the year reflects both the strength of our year-to-date performance.”