United Parcel Service (UPS)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$111.97+1.77%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track UPS free→UPS invests $48 million in cold-chain logistics to support growth. The company targets $89.7 billion revenue and 9.6% operating margin in 2026. Recent earnings beats show resilience despite a guidance cut. Expansion in Mexico air freight boosts revenue potential.
UPS faces margin pressure with operating margin down to 6.0% in Q1 from 10.5% prior. Legal and labor issues may raise costs. Competition from FedEx threatens revenue growth. Guidance cuts signal challenges meeting targets.
The price is about 6% below our fair value near $120, reflecting a justified view. Analysts expect 4% revenue growth, but recent guidance cuts and margin pressure suggest risks to these expectations.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures fall below $2.5 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 8% in FY26
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
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UPS aims for a non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of approximately 9.6% for the full year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating margin was 6.0% in 2026-Q1, down from 10.5% in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows a significant gap from the 9.6% target, indicating limited progress.
“Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of approximately 9.6% is reaffirmed for 2026.”
“Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin to be approximately 9.6%.”
“UPS expects non-GAAP adjusted operating margin to be approximately 9.6%.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $85 billion in FY26
UPS aims to achieve a consolidated revenue of approximately $89.7 billion for the full year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $21.2 billion in 2026-Q1, down from $24.5 billion in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the $89.7 billion target, with a need for acceleration in subsequent quarters.
“The company reaffirms its consolidated financial targets of revenue of approximately $89.7 billion.”
“UPS expects revenue to be approximately $89.7 billion.”
“For the full year 2026, UPS expects revenue to be approximately $89.7 billion.”