Valero Energy (VLO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-07-07
$266.15-1.54%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track VLO free→Valero Energy keeps beating earnings estimates, with Q1 EPS up 33.5%. It plans to complete a refinery upgrade by Q3 2026 to boost valuable product output. Capital investments remain steady, with $448 million spent in Q1 2026. The company raised its dividend by 6%, showing strong cash returns to shareholders.
Refining margins could weaken due to new California carbon rules raising costs. Analysts expect flat or slightly negative revenue growth next year. The stock trades about 15% above our valuation model, suggesting limited upside if earnings disappoint.
The market prices in about zero revenue growth and expects earnings to remain stable. Our view is cautious given regulatory risks and stretched valuation compared to peers.
Breaks if: quarterly capital investments fall below $400 million
Valero continues to focus on sustaining capital investments, including regulatory compliance and turnarounds.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital investments were $448 million in Q1 2026, with $404 million for sustaining the business. This indicates consistent focus on maintaining capital investments, delivering on stated priorities.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Capital investments totaled $448 million in the first quarter of 2026, of which $404 million was for sustaining the business.”
“Capital investments totaled $412 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, of which $368 million was for sustaining the business.”
Breaks if: no dividend increase or cut within next year
Valero increased its quarterly cash dividend by 6% to $1.20 per share, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns.
Breaks if: FCC Unit optimization not completed by Q3 2026
Valero aims to complete the FCC Unit optimization at St. Charles Refinery by Q3 2026 to enhance high-value product output.
Breaks if: Refining costs rise more than 5% due to regulation