Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)

NYSEMaterialsBuilding MaterialsSnapshot 2026-07-07

$299.86-1.63%

Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change

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The thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Cyclical

The bull case

Vulcan aims to earn $2.4-$2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year. Sales grew 7% last quarter. The company plans to spend $750-$800 million on capital projects. Profit margins should stay above 20%.

The bear case

Vulcan missed earnings in two recent quarters. Leadership changes may cause uncertainty. Sales growth could slow below 4.5%.

What's priced in

The price is about 29% above our fair value near $233. Analysts expect about 4.5% revenue growth. Our fair value is 27% below the Street median.

What has to stay true

Deliver Adjusted EBITDA of $2.4-$2.6 billion in 2026Intact
Cash Flowprimary>=2400 USD millions · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.4 billion in FY26
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Deliver Adjusted EBITDA of $2.4-$2.6 billionGrowth
  Maintain focus on achieving the full-year Adjusted EBITDA target of $2.4 to $2.6 billion.
  On Track
  Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $2.145 billion to $2.360 billion year-over-year, indicating progress towards the $2.4-$2.6 billion target. The trajectory is delivering against the stated goal.
  Adjusted EBITDA grew from $2.145 billion to $2.360 billion year-over-year
Spend $750-$800 million on capital projects in 2026Intact
Capital Allocationsupporting750-800 USD millions · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Capital spending falls below $750 million in FY26
Are they delivering?Mixed this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Allocate $750-$800 million for capital spendingCapital allocation
  Focus on capital spending for maintenance and growth projects within the $750 to $800 million range.
  Mixed
  Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures were $90 million in 2026-Q1, indicating ongoing allocation towards the $750-$800 million annual target. The trajectory suggests continued focus on capital projects, though substantial spending is required in subsequent quarters to meet the full-year guidance.
Maintain gross margin at or above 20% in 2026Intact
Marginsupporting>=20% · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 20% in FY26
Achieve revenue growth near 4.5% in next 12 monthsIntact
Revenue Growthprimary>=4.5% YoY · next 12 months (consensus)
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 4.5% YoY next year

Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.

Read the full Outlook — the long-form 1–3 year hold read

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.