Vistra Corp. (VST)
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$149.30+3.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VST — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-16
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: If net income drops below this level, it may show profit challenges.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income reported below $800 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net income reported above $800 million.
Why it matters: This would indicate that Vistra is struggling to meet its growth targets for EBITDA.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was below $1.5 billion.
Less concerning ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was above $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Vistra. This may improve overall market conditions.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to about 5% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down to less than 3% each year.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can raise earnings per share. It shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifShare buybacks will increase beyond the current $1.2 billion left.
Worry ifShare repurchases slow down or stop before the end of 2027.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$202 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $521 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,800 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completing the share buyback could enhance shareholder value and reduce share count.
Supportive ifVistra completes its share repurchase program by the end of 2027.
Worry ifManagement announces delays or cuts in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback program can signal confidence in financial health and support share price.
Supportive ifThere are announcements about big share buybacks that are done or planned.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Changes in credit ratings can affect borrowing costs and how investors feel.
Watch forUpgrade of credit rating by another major agency beyond Fitch.
Also watch forDowngrade of credit rating by any major agency.
Why it matters: Good acquisitions can help growth and make financial numbers better.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new acquisition. It is expected to add at least $100 million in EBITDA.
Worry ifNo acquisitions are announced. Previous deals may be delayed.
Why it matters: Strong EBITDA growth would show progress in management's goal to increase earnings. It signals better financial health.
Supportive ifQ1 Adjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ1 Adjusted EBITDA growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback program shows good use of capital and focus on returns.
Supportive ifManagement says the buyback program is done with $1.2 billion left.
Worry ifManagement delays or cancels the buyback program due to cash issues.
Why it matters: The share buyback shows trust in the company's money situation.
Supportive ifShare buybacks rise to about $6.8 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare buybacks stop or drop, which may show financial worries.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal would boost Vistra's power generation and growth.
Supportive ifThe deal closes successfully and is shared in a press release.
Worry ifThe deal faces more delays or rules that stop it from closing.