Vistra Corp. (VST)
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$120.29-13.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
VST — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-11-05
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On the Closing Date, Vistra issued 5,000,000 shares of Vistra common stock to Seller as the Stock Consideration. The shares of Vistra common stock comprising the Stock Consideration were issued in reliance on the exemption from registration requirements provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), to a person who is an “accredited investor” as that term is defined in Rule 501 of Regulation D promulgated…
Why it matters: Vistra had $1.2 billion left in its buyback authorization in August and aims to finish by year-end 2027. Fresh figures can show the pace.
Supportive ifThe next update shows more than $1.2 billion in total repurchases since August. It also shows fewer shares outstanding.
Worry ifThe next update shows no more repurchases, or more than $1.2 billion left in the authorization.
Why it matters: Vistra reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion. Q3 results will show whether it stays on track.
Watch forOn Nov. 6, Vistra keeps its $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion EBITDA range and reports results consistent with reaching at least $6.8 billion.
Also watch forOn Nov. 6, Vistra cuts the range below $6.8 billion or reports results that leave the low end out of reach.
Why it matters: Vistra began work on two Permian Basin gas units totaling 860 MW. A dated build update would show progress on planned capacity.
Supportive ifVistra reports a dated construction milestone for both Permian Basin units. This could be completed construction or a stated start-up date.
Worry ifVistra reports a delay, a cut to the 860-MW plan, or no build milestone in the next two earnings reports.
Why it matters: Vistra committed up to $1.0 billion to Helix and is its preferred power provider. A signed customer deal would show progress beyond the initial investment.
Supportive ifVistra or Helix names a data center customer and signs a power supply deal.
Worry ifNo named customer or signed power deal appears in the next two earnings reports. Or Vistra cuts its commitment.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $538 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,683 loss on $10,000 · 36.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The 5,500-MW gas portfolio would add capacity. Vistra had FERC approval, but the deal was still pending in August.
Supportive ifVistra announces that the Cogentrix purchase has closed by Dec. 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe deal remains pending after Dec. 31, 2026, or Vistra announces a delay or cancellation.