Vistra Corp. (VST)
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$149.30+3.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VST
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $149 VST trades at 18× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $155 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $169–$298. Note: our $155 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($169–$298). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $212.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $49.88 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $54.76 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $200.77 | 49.5 | 4.06 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$169.00 – $298.00 (median $212.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-08-24
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 50% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 2.9 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.15/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $177.78 |
| 17.6 |
| 10.10 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $164.80 | 2.9 | 56.63 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $445.54 | 54.1 | 8.23 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $39.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $167.39 | 20.3 | 8.23 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $190.30 | 23.1 | 8.25 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $106.01 | 49.5 | 2.14 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $232.46 | 17.6 | 13.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $262.54 | 2.9 | 90.22 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $715.30 | 54.1 | 13.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $268.74 | 20.3 | 13.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $69.25 | 49.5 | 1.40 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $307.43 | 17.6 | 17.47 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $347.21 | 2.9 | 119.32 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $945.98 | 54.1 | 17.47 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $355.41 | 20.3 | 17.47 | Analyst | high |