Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vistra Corp. (VST)
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$120.29-13.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.25 → 10.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Add 4.5 GW capacity to meet rising demand | It adds 4.5 GW capacity to meet demand. | Improving | Capacity growth stalls or falls short of 4.5 GW by mid-2026 | 5.5 GW added vs 4.5 GW target Vistra completed 5,500 MW Cogentrix acquisition and secured $4.2B DOE nuclear loan, advancing capacity growth objectives. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an earnings-and-cash-flow growth story with meaningful execution and sector risks. The long-term thesis weakened this week as recent financial performance fell from the top half to the bottom half of its industry, although management’s earnings and cash-flow priorities remain on track.
The valuation evidence points to VST being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding relative to the model. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, but valuation rose recently and its confidence is medium.
Near term, management’s reaffirmed 2026 guidance and higher ongoing-operations Adjusted EBITDA from the first to the second quarter support a constructive operating picture, though recent relative performance has weakened. Guidance cuts are a key risk, and the snapshot also flags elevated risk, volatile management, and recent debt and financial-obligation events.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, while completion of the Cogentrix acquisition and the share repurchase program remain execution questions. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could provide support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, VST has evidence of cash-flow execution, but the thesis has weakened and remains exposed to guidance, management, and sector risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is $4.3 billion. |
| Intact |
| FCF falls below $3.9 billion in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $133M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF between $3.9B and $4.7B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026133,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin about $7.3 billion in 2026 | A supporting condition in Vistra Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Gross margin between $6.8B and $7.6B. | Intact | Gross margin falls below $6.8 billion in FY26 | Gross margin: 34.6% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross margin between $6.8B and $7.6B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202634.602938 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth about 19% in 2026 | A primary condition in Vistra Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=19% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -5.48% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=19% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026-5.482353 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.27 → $10.06 · observed estimates
$25.26B → $23.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.27 | $25,264,134,000 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.27 | $25,264,134,000 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.27 | $25,264,134,000 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.27 | $25,567,102,667 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.26 | $25,275,236,500 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.25 | $25,459,546,030 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.16 | $25,163,136,490 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.10 | $25,687,781,990 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.03 | $25,370,146,030 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.10 | $25,687,781,990 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.10 | $25,687,781,990 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.10 | $25,687,781,990 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.01 | $25,353,210,146 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.01 | $25,353,210,146 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.93 | $25,312,638,717 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.92 | $24,918,079,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.93 | $25,312,638,717 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.85 | $24,918,079,550 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.93 | $25,312,638,717 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.93 | $25,312,638,717 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.93 | $25,312,638,717 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.93 | $25,312,638,717 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.93 | $25,312,638,717 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.93 | $25,312,638,717 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.93 | $25,312,638,717 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.56 | $24,968,515,649 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.56 | $24,968,515,649 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.50 | $25,008,692,987 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.50 | $25,008,692,987 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.50 | $25,008,692,987 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,788 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,787 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,787 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,787 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.22 | $24,562,646,787 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.22 | $24,562,660,121 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.22 | $24,562,660,121 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.22 | $24,562,660,121 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.22 | $24,562,660,121 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.23 | $24,525,282,129 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.23 | $24,525,282,129 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.23 | $24,525,282,129 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.23 | $24,525,282,129 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.23 | $24,525,282,129 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.13 | $24,685,016,565 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.13 | $24,685,016,565 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.13 | $24,685,016,565 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.13 | $24,685,016,565 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.13 | $24,685,016,565 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.13 | $24,685,016,565 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.13 | $24,685,016,565 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.22 | $24,710,682,128 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.22 | $24,710,682,128 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.25 | $24,641,389,495 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.25 | $24,641,389,495 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.25 | $24,632,576,995 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.11 | $24,545,895,995 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.11 | $24,545,895,995 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.11 | $24,545,895,995 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.11 | $24,545,895,995 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.15 | $24,520,679,275 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.19 | $24,555,192,932 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.19 | $24,555,192,932 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.19 | $24,555,192,932 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.19 | $24,555,192,932 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.19 | $24,555,192,932 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.20 | $24,397,193,989 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.07 | $23,612,468,823 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.04 | $23,612,468,823 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.06 | $23,628,890,782 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.06 | $23,628,890,782 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.06 | $23,628,890,782 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.06 | $23,628,890,782 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.06 | $23,628,890,782 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.