Vistra Corp. (VST)
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$149.30+3.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth about 19% in 2026: Q2 FY26 revenue $4.02B vs Q1 FY26 $5.64B; no YoY growth metric reported.
Vistra grows revenue about 19% next year. Free cash flow is $4.3 billion. It adds 4.5 GW capacity to meet demand. Partnerships boost growth in AI infrastructure.
Profit margins could shrink if costs rise. Free cash flow might miss $3.9 billion. Growth could slow if demand weakens.
The price is about 5% below our fair value near $163. Analysts expect 19% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median.
Breaks if: Capacity growth stalls or falls short of 4.5 GW by mid-2026
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow to strengthen financial performance.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on increasing cash flow and executing share repurchases. The current thesis is mixed due to recent performance and sector challenges, but management's priorities show potential for stability.
The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to the turbulent sector environment, but VST is still seen as justified compared to peers. The valuation appears expensive relative to its industry, with a premium that suggests high expectations.
Management is on track to increase Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow, which supports a stable outlook. However, the near-term risk is elevated, with a significant probability of missing earnings expectations, especially as peers have struggled recently.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on their priorities, particularly the acquisition of Cogentrix and the share repurchase program. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve rate changes and sector performance will be critical in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings report missed expectations. This miss raises concerns about future performance. The company has faced unsteady management and frequent changes. These factors contribute to a more cautious outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: FCF falls below $3.9 billion in FY26
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow to strengthen financial performance.
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below $6.8 billion in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow to strengthen financial performance.
Overall, VST's multi-year view is cautious, balancing solid management execution against sector headwinds and elevated risks. Not investment advice.