Waste Management (WM)
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-07-07
$237.21+3.59%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track WM free→Waste Management grows revenue about 5% a year. Profit margins expand above 30.8%. Free cash flow rises nearly 30% to about $3.8 billion. Healthcare Solutions integration adds margin and revenue growth.
Revenue growth could slow below 5%. Profit margins may compress under cost pressures. Free cash flow growth might stall if capital spending rises or synergies lag.
The price is about 30% above our fair value near $179. Analysts expect roughly 7% revenue growth, which is slightly above management's 5.2% guidance. Our view is more cautious on growth but aligned on margin and cash flow expansion.
Breaks if: Adjusted operating EBITDA margin falls below 30.8% in FY26
Continue disciplined pricing, cost optimization, and operational efficiency to grow adjusted operating EBITDA margin above 30%.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted operating EBITDA margin expanded from about 29.8% in 2025-Q1 to 30.5% in 2026-Q1, with full-year 2026 guidance targeting 30.8%-31.0%. Management consistently emphasizes margin expansion driven by disciplined pricing and cost optimization, and the trajectory is delivering.
Breaks if: Free cash flow growth falls below 29.4% in FY26
Grow free cash flow through operational improvements, sustainability investments, and disciplined capital allocation.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow grew from $475 million in 2025-Q1 to $920 million in 2026-Q1, nearly doubling. Full-year 2026 guidance targets $3.75-$3.85 billion, a 29.4% increase over 2025's $2.9 billion. Management consistently emphasizes free cash flow growth, and the trajectory is delivering.
Breaks if: Healthcare Solutions EBITDA growth falls below 18% or synergies miss $300 million by 2027
Advance integration of Stericycle acquisition to realize synergies and grow Healthcare Solutions revenue and margin.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 5.2% in FY26
Achieve revenue growth through disciplined pricing, volume growth, and contributions from sustainability and healthcare solutions.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $6.018 billion in 2025-Q1 to $6.227 billion in 2026-Q1 (+3.5%). Full-year 2026 revenue guidance is $26.425-$26.625 billion, a 5.2% increase over 2025's $25.275 billion. Management emphasizes disciplined pricing and volume growth, and the trajectory is delivering.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin expanded 70 basis points despite weather impacts.”
“Full-year 2025 adjusted operating EBITDA margin exceeded 30% for the first time.”
“Collection and Disposal business delivered record-setting margin this quarter.”
“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin was 31.3% in the Legacy Business.”
“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin achieved 30% for the fourth consecutive quarter.”
“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin was 28.9% for full year 2024, with Legacy Business at 30%.”
“Free cash flow nearly doubled in the quarter compared to prior year.”
“Free cash flow in 2025 was $2.94 billion, a 26.8% increase from prior year.”
“Free cash flow in first nine months of 2025 was $2.11 billion, a 13.5% increase.”
“Free cash flow in first half of 2025 was $1.29 billion, driven by EBITDA growth.”
“Free cash flow was $475 million, in line with expectations.”
“Free cash flow increased 21.8% to $2.32 billion in 2024.”
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 6 quarters. Healthcare Solutions operating EBITDA grew from about $80 million in 2025-Q1 to $95 million in 2026-Q1 (+18.4%). Management targets $300 million in synergies by 2027 from integration efforts. The trajectory shows progress delivering on integration and margin expansion.
“Healthcare Solutions operating EBITDA grew 18.4%, driven by SG&A cost management and synergy capture.”
“Healthcare Solutions margin improved to 13.5% in 2025 from 1.0% in 2024.”
“Integration advancing, SG&A as % of revenue improved 270 basis points sequentially.”
“On track to achieve $80-$100 million synergies in 2025.”
“Healthcare Solutions contributed $95 million of adjusted operating EBITDA, in line with expectations.”
“Revenue grew 3.5%, driven by core price of 6.3% and yield of 3.9%.”
“Full-year 2025 revenue was $25.204 billion, up 14.2% including acquisitions.”
“Revenue growth in Legacy Business was 3.7%, driven by core price of 6.0%.”
“Revenue growth of 7.1% in Legacy Business driven by core price of 6.4%.”
“Revenue growth of 4.7% in Legacy Business driven by core price of 6.5%.”
“Full-year 2024 revenue was $22.063 billion, up 8.0%.”