Carnival (CCL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$26.66-3.09%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track CCL free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Track CCL free→Carnival is the world's largest cruise operator with over 100 vessels. It aims for $7.11 billion adjusted EBITDA in 2026, showing strong earnings momentum. Management is executing a $2.5 billion share buyback program, returning cash to shareholders. Recent quarters beat EPS estimates with revenue growth around 5-6%.
Competition from other cruise lines and recent data breaches could hurt bookings. Management has shown volatility and some negative capital allocation events. The sector faces headwinds and the stock is down 13.7% from its high. Profit growth may slow if demand weakens or costs rise.
The stock trades about 30% below our fair value near $38, reflecting cautious optimism. Analysts expect about 3.5% revenue growth, which is lower than recent 5-6% growth. Our fair value is in line with the Street median, so the market prices in moderate growth and some risks.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $6.7 billion in FY26
Deliver $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026, continuing earnings growth momentum and operational outperformance.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $6.7 billion in 2025 to a guidance of $7.11 billion for 2026, with quarterly results showing $1.6 billion in Q2 2026. Management has consistently reiterated the $7 billion target for 2026, and the trajectory is delivering against this goal.
“Record adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion in Q2 2026, on track for $7.11 billion full year.”
“We remain on track to deliver $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year.”
“Record adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 billion for full year 2025, up over $1 billion from prior year.”
“Raised full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $6.7 billion.”
Breaks if: major management turnover or governance failures occur
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year
Deliver $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026, continuing earnings growth momentum and operational outperformance.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $6.7 billion in 2025 to a guidance of $7.11 billion for 2026, with quarterly results showing $1.6 billion in Q2 2026. Management has consistently reiterated the $7 billion target for 2026, and the trajectory is delivering against this goal.
“Record adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion in Q2 2026, on track for $7.11 billion full year.”
“We remain on track to deliver $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year.”
“Record adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 billion for full year 2025, up over $1 billion from prior year.”
“Raised full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $6.7 billion.”
Breaks if: buybacks fall below $1.5 billion by end 2026
Implement a $2.5 billion share repurchase program to enhance shareholder returns alongside dividends.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management launched a $2.5 billion share buyback program in Q1 2026 and repurchased over $450 million by Q2 2026. This demonstrates initial delivery on the commitment to accelerate shareholder returns.
“Accelerates shareholder returns, surpassing $450 million in stock repurchases.”
“Announces initial $2.5 billion share buyback program.”