Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$34.35+1.09%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track CMG free→Chipotle plans to open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026. Sales grew 7.4% in Q1 2026. Profit margins remain stable with steady earnings. The company is strong in digital and menu innovation.
Sales growth may slow below 7%. New restaurant openings could miss targets. Rising costs might reduce profit margins.
The price is about 11% above our fair value near $32. Analysts expect 12% revenue growth, which we see as justified but not overly optimistic.
Breaks if: comparable restaurant sales growth falls below -2% in 2026
Chipotle aims to maintain flat comparable restaurant sales for the full year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Comparable restaurant sales increased 0.5% in 2026-Q1, slightly above the flat target. The trajectory shows limited progress towards maintaining flat sales for the full year.
Breaks if: digital and menu innovation efforts stall or reverse
Breaks if: profit margins fall more than 200 basis points below recent levels
Breaks if: new restaurant openings fall below 300 in 2026
Chipotle aims to open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026, including international locations.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Chipotle opened 49 company-owned restaurants in 2026-Q1, contributing to the goal of 350 to 370 new openings in 2026. The trajectory shows progress towards the target, but the pace needs to accelerate to meet the annual goal.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
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“Management anticipates full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat.”
“Full year comparable restaurant sales to be about flat.”
“About flat full year comparable restaurant sales.”
“Management anticipates 350 to 370 new restaurant openings in 2026.”
“350 to 370 new restaurant openings, including 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants.”
“315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane.”
“315 to 345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane.”