Cummins (CMI)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-08
$669.11+1.36%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Cummins aims to grow revenue by 8% to 11% in 2026. Profit margins are expected to improve with gross margin guidance raised to as high as 18.5%. The company benefits from rising power demand and investments in green technology. Free cash flow yield is positive, supporting stable operations.
Recent earnings missed estimates by about 15%. Competition and geopolitical risks could hurt revenue growth. The stock trades at a premium with a PE of 32.3 versus peers at 23.1, risking a valuation correction.
The market prices in about 12% revenue growth and a 37% premium over our fair value near $484. Our model is more conservative than the Street, which targets around $770. We see limited upside given current estimates.
Breaks if: significant market share loss or export revenue decline
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 17.75% in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY26
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Cummins aims to increase its full-year 2026 revenue by 8% to 11%.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $8.317B in 2025-Q3 to $8.739B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards the 8% to 11% growth target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering against the stated guidance.
“Cummins is raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to be up 8% to 11%.”
“Cummins projects full-year 2026 revenue to be in the range of up 3% to 8%.”