Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Capital One (COF)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$203.84-1.20%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
23.90 → 23.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share at least $0.8 by 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share increased from $0.6 to $0.8, showing steady payouts. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.8 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.80 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.8 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.8 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
COF is a financial company with a growth-and-integration thesis, rather than a clear turnaround. Its thesis state is watch: company momentum has improved, while recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to COF being cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap of -0.09. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, and fragility is low, so the snapshot does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, revenue growth and the latest earnings beat are constructive, while recent financial performance is still neutral and below the industry cohort. Expense control has improved in the latest quarter but has been mixed, and the supplied disclosures show limited specific evidence of Discover synergy delivery.
Over the next few quarters, the integration thesis depends on delivering clear synergies, while sustaining revenue growth and managing costs. A guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
Over a 1 to 3 year view, COF has improving momentum and a peer-discounted valuation, but the thesis remains conditional on integration progress and stronger relative fundamentals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital One grew net income from $1.4B to $2.2B in one year. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $2.17B in any quarter after 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $3.539B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.17B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20263,539,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $2.7B by 2026-Q1 | Operating income rose from $1.7B to $2.7B in the same period. | Intact | operating income falls below $2.7B in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $7.344B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.7B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 28, 20267,344,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage regulatory challenges without profit harm | A supporting condition in Capital One's published investment case. The stated target is No material profit impact from regulatory actions. | Improving | Regulatory actions cause profit decline or operational limits | Q3 earnings beat; no material regulatory profit impact reported Q3 earnings beat, NIM +40bps. Political debanking probe noted but no quantified profit decline or operational limits. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$24.07 → $23.89 · observed estimates
$67.53B → $67.59B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $24.07 | $67,528,064,490 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $24.04 | $67,615,710,739 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $24.04 | $67,615,710,739 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $24.04 | $67,615,710,739 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $24.04 | $67,615,710,739 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $24.05 | $67,734,155,700 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $24.05 | $67,734,155,700 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $24.05 | $67,734,155,700 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $23.86 | $67,770,466,118 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $23.86 | $67,770,466,118 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $23.86 | $67,770,466,118 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $24.05 | $67,734,155,700 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $24.07 | $67,756,139,070 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $24.05 | $67,737,069,229 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-11 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $24.05 | $67,737,069,229 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $23.88 | $67,792,449,485 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $23.88 | $67,792,445,907 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $23.87 | $67,836,745,908 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $23.87 | $67,836,745,908 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $23.87 | $67,836,745,908 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $23.87 | $67,836,745,908 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $23.87 | $67,848,361,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $23.87 | $67,856,811,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $23.87 | $67,856,811,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $23.87 | $67,856,811,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $23.85 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $23.88 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $23.88 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $23.88 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $23.88 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $23.88 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $23.88 | $67,854,311,889 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $23.88 | $67,854,485,039 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $23.88 | $67,854,485,039 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $23.88 | $67,854,485,039 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $23.88 | $67,854,485,039 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $23.88 | $67,854,485,039 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $23.88 | $67,854,485,039 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $23.92 | $67,726,851,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $23.92 | $67,726,851,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $23.92 | $67,726,851,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $23.92 | $67,726,851,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $23.92 | $67,726,851,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $23.92 | $67,726,851,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $23.92 | $67,726,851,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $23.92 | $67,717,851,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $23.89 | $67,699,061,734 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $23.90 | $67,757,774,206 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $23.90 | $67,758,947,891 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $23.90 | $67,758,947,891 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $23.90 | $67,758,947,891 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $23.90 | $67,758,947,891 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $23.89 | $67,715,241,041 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $23.88 | $67,683,030,100 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $23.95 | $67,773,341,104 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $23.95 | $67,773,341,104 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $23.95 | $67,773,341,104 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $23.94 | $67,754,319,049 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $23.94 | $67,754,319,049 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $23.94 | $67,745,658,941 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $23.94 | $67,745,658,941 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $23.93 | $67,745,658,941 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $23.93 | $67,745,658,941 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $23.93 | $67,745,658,941 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $23.93 | $67,745,658,941 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $23.93 | $67,745,658,941 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $23.93 | $67,745,658,941 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $23.83 | $67,687,675,298 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $23.85 | $67,570,732,445 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $23.86 | $67,570,732,445 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $23.93 | $67,561,170,868 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $23.93 | $67,561,170,868 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $23.93 | $67,561,170,868 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $23.93 | $67,561,170,868 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $24.02 | $67,586,286,156 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $24.02 | $67,586,286,156 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $24.02 | $67,619,024,720 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $23.98 | $67,665,587,206 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $23.98 | $67,665,587,206 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $23.98 | $67,665,587,206 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $23.89 | $67,591,516,333 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $23.89 | $67,591,516,333 | 14 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 10 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.