Capital One (COF)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$219.60-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
COF — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-09
Other Events. This current report on Form 8-K is filed for the purpose of filing the attached exhibit in connection with the prospectus supplement no. 2, dated June 9, 2026 (the “Resale Prospectus Supplement No. 2”), filed by Capital One Financial Corporation (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which amends and supplements the prospectus supplement, dated April 23, 2026 (the “Initial Resale Prospectus Supplement”) and forms a part of the Company’s automatic shelf regi…
Why it matters: A bigger drop in revenue may show less business strength and market share.
Worry ifQ2 total net revenue down more than 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 total net revenue stable or growing year over year.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is more efficient. This shows strong performance.
Supportive ifOperating income growth rate exceeds 15% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income growth rate falls below 5% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. This gives investors confidence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend payout of $0.6 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifA dividend payout cut or stop is announced.
Why it matters: Successful integration is key to maintaining growth and improving net income. Investors will look for signs of continued success.
Supportive ifManagement says integration is going well. They see better net income and revenue.
Worry ifManagement points out problems with integration. There may be a slowdown in financial performance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $350 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,146 loss on $10,000 · 31.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher marketing costs may lower profits. This could mean a change in strategy after buying companies.
Worry ifMarketing expenses rise more than 38% compared to the previous quarter.
Less concerning ifMarketing expenses stay the same or go down.
Why it matters: The efficiency ratio shows how well the company controls its costs. A worse ratio means higher costs.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio improves from 57.05% in Q2 to below 55% in Q3.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio worsens to above 57.05% in Q3.
Why it matters: A big drop in deposits could mean customers are leaving. This may hurt Capital One's funding and growth.
Worry ifTotal deposits are down more than 2% from last quarter.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits are stable or growing from last quarter.
Why it matters: Higher credit loss provisions may mean more defaults. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 credit loss provisions were over $3.0 billion. This may show credit quality issues.
Less concerning ifCredit loss provisions were below $2.5 billion. This suggests credit quality is stable.
Why it matters: Stable loan growth shows strong demand and good lending strategies.
Supportive ifPeriod-end loans held for investment increase by more than 2% in Q3.
Worry ifPeriod-end loans held for investment increase by less than 1% in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows that Discover is integrating well. This is good for the business.
Supportive ifQ3 net income grows year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Closing the Brex deal helps Capital One in the business payments market.
Supportive ifThe official announcement says the Brex acquisition will close on time.
Worry ifThere is a delay in closing the Brex acquisition. This is due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show more credit risk. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $4 billion in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $3.5 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may mean problems in the business or market.
Worry ifTotal net revenue growth in Q3 is below 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal net revenue growth in Q3 exceeds 5% year over year.