Capital One (COF)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$203.84-1.20%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COF — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-15
Other Events. On September 15, 2026, Capital One Financial Corporation (the “ Company ”) closed the public offering of €750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.326% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2032 (the “ 2032 Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes ”) and €750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.832% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2037 (the “ 2037 Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes ” and, together with the 2032 Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes, the “ Notes ”), pursuant to an underwri…
Why it matters: Costs fell in Q3 after rising in Q2. Another increase would weaken the latest cost trend.
Worry ifQ4 total non-interest costs exceed $8.9 billion, the Q3 level.
Less concerning ifQ4 total non-interest expense stays at or below $8.9 billion.
Why it matters: Capital One says the Discover integration is going well, but costs remain. Lower costs would support progress toward the expected synergies.
Supportive ifQ4 Discover integration costs fall below $338 million, the Q3 level.
Worry ifQ4 Discover integration costs reach or exceed $338 million.
Why it matters: Capital One reported $3.1 billion in Q3 net charge-offs. A weaker jobs report could raise concern about borrower repayment.
Watch forThe November 6 Employment Situation shows job gains. Q4 net charge-offs stay at or below $3.1 billion.
Also watch forThe November 6 report shows job losses, while Q4 net charge-offs exceed $3.1 billion.
Why it matters: Net charge-offs were $3.1 billion in Q3. A rise would show more loan losses after two quarters with reserve releases.
Worry ifQ4 net charge-offs exceed $3.1 billion, the Q3 amount.
Less concerning ifQ4 net charge-offs stay at or below $3.1 billion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $327 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,146 loss on $10,000 · 31.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.