Coinbase (COIN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$163.51-3.17%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading COIN? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track COIN free→NASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading COIN? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track COIN free→Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Coinbase is growing its Everything Exchange with 169% more derivatives volume. Stablecoin revenue rose to $364 million last quarter. DeFi trading volume doubled recently. The company is cutting costs to use AI better.
Revenue fell 31% last quarter and earnings missed estimates. The stock is down 24.5% from its high. New stablecoin competition and outages hurt growth. Cost cuts may not fix profit problems soon.
The price is about 22% above our fair value near $133. Analysts expect 12% revenue growth. Our fair value is 34% below the Street median, showing some optimism is priced in.
Breaks if: Restructuring costs exceed $60 million or fail to improve margins
Implement operational changes to leverage AI technologies and improve efficiency.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company announced a restructuring plan with an expected one-time expense of ~$50-$60 million to optimize operations for AI. The trajectory shows limited progress with restructuring costs yet to be fully realized.
“Company announced a restructuring plan to manage operating expenses and optimize for AI.”
“CEO: 'Optimize operations for the AI era.'”
Breaks if: DEX trading volume growth falls below 12% Q/Q next quarter
Drive global adoption of DeFi by integrating decentralized finance solutions into the Coinbase platform.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. DEX Trading Volume grew 2x Q/Q, indicating progress in DeFi integrations. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority.
“CEO: 'Bringing the world onchain through DeFi integrations, scaling the Base App.'”
“CEO: 'DeFi integrations are driving real-world utility.'”
“CEO: 'Our focus is on driving DeFi adoption.'”
Breaks if: Derivatives trading volume growth falls below 12% YoY next year
Continue expanding the Everything Exchange to include all tradable assets such as crypto, derivatives, equities, and more.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Derivatives Trading Volume TTM up 169% Y/Y, indicating strong growth in the Everything Exchange. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority.
“CEO: 'Continuing to grow the Everything Exchange: one platform for all tradable assets.'”
“CEO: 'We successfully launched the Everything Exchange to the delight of our customers.'”
“CEO: 'Our Everything Exchange is central to our growth strategy.'”
Breaks if: Stablecoin revenue falls below $300 million next year
Enhance stablecoin adoption and integrate payments infrastructure with deeper product integrations.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Stablecoin revenue was $364 million, up 3% Q/Q, showing progress in scaling stablecoins and payments infrastructure. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority.
“CEO: 'Scaling stablecoins and payments infrastructure with deeper product integrations.'”
“CEO: 'We saw new records for stablecoin revenue, driven by all-time highs in Average USDC Held in Coinbase Products.'”
“CEO: 'Stablecoin adoption is a key focus for us.'”