D. R. Horton (DHI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-07-09
$149.51+0.67%
Close 2026-07-09 · 1-day change
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Track DHI free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
D.R. Horton is growing revenue toward $33.5-$34.5 billion in 2026. The company repurchased $1.6 billion in shares in the first half of 2026. Profitability remains solid with recent earnings beats. The stock trades cheap versus peers at a P/E of 14.6.
Macro headwinds and housing market challenges could slow revenue growth below targets. Legal claims about construction quality may hurt reputation and sales. The company’s revenue fell from $9.7 billion in 2025-Q4 to $7.6 billion in 2026-Q2, showing pressure.
The price is about 9% below our fair value near $171. Analysts expect 6% revenue growth, which aligns with management’s guidance. Our view is cautious given macro risks and recent revenue softness.
Breaks if: Dividends fall well below $500 million in FY26
Continue to pay approximately $500 million in dividends during fiscal 2026.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Paid $261.2 million in dividends in the first six months of 2026, indicating the company is on track to meet the $500 million target. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
“Dividend payments of approximately $500 million reiterated for fiscal 2026.”
“Dividend payments of approximately $500 million reiterated.”
“Dividend payments of approximately $500 million.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 6% next year due to macro factors
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $33.5 billion in FY26
Aim to achieve consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $34.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $7.6 billion in 2026-Q2, showing a decrease from $9.7 billion in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the $33.5-$34.5 billion target.
“D.R. Horton is updating its guidance for fiscal 2026: Consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $34.5 billion.”
“D.R. Horton is reiterating its fiscal 2026 guidance: Consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $35.0 billion.”
“D.R. Horton is providing initial guidance for fiscal 2026: Consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $35.0 billion.”
Breaks if: Repurchases fall significantly short of $2.5 billion in FY26
Plan to repurchase approximately $2.5 billion worth of shares during fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Repurchased $1.6 billion worth of shares in the first six months of 2026, indicating progress towards the $2.5 billion target. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
“The Company repurchased 6.0 million shares for $903.6 million in Q2, totaling $1.6 billion for the first six months.”
“Share repurchases of approximately $2.5 billion reiterated.”