First Solar (FSLR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-07-08
$224.30-1.50%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track FSLR free→First Solar aims for revenue near $5.1 billion in 2026. It targets free cash flow around $2 billion. The company controls costs with operating expenses near $620 million. Its valuation is cheap compared to peers with a P/E of 14.7 versus sector median 73.4.
Revenue growth is slowing with Q1 revenue down from Q4. Operating income dropped sharply in Q1. Cash flow turned negative in Q1, raising concerns on capital spending. The recent guidance cut and selloff reflect these risks.
The price is about 49% below our fair value near $453. Analysts expect 6% revenue growth. Our fair value is well above the Street median, reflecting optimism on growth and margins. The market discounts risks from recent guidance cuts and cash flow weakness.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $1.7B in FY26
Keep capital expenditures within the 2026 guidance range of $0.8B to $1.0B.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities was -$214M in 2026-Q1, a significant drop from $1.24B in 2025-Q4. The recurring focus on managing capex is evident, but the negative cash flow indicates challenges in maintaining the capex guidance.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Capital Expenditures $0.8B to $1.0B Unchanged.”
“Capital Expenditures $0.8B to $1.0B”
“Capital Expenditures $0.8B to $1.0B”
Breaks if: Operating expenses exceed $635M in FY26
Maintain operating expenses within the 2026 guidance range of $610M to $635M.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was $345M in 2026-Q1, down from $547M in 2025-Q4. The focus on controlling expenses is recurring, but the decline in operating income suggests mixed results in achieving the expense control target.
“Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Operating Expenses (2) $610M to $635M Unchanged.”
“Operating Expenses (2) $610M to $635M Unchanged.”
“Operating Expenses (2) $610M to $635M Unchanged.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $4.9B in FY26
Continue to aim for 2026 revenue between $4.9B and $5.2B.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $1.04B in 2026-Q1, down from $1.68B in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the $4.9B to $5.2B target for 2026, indicating challenges in maintaining guidance.
“Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Net Sales $4.9B to $5.2B Unchanged.”
“The complete 2026 guidance is as follows: 2026 Guidance (1) ... Net Sales $4.9B to $5.2B”
“Our 2025 guidance has been updated as follows: Prior Current Net Sales $4.90B to $5.70B $4.95B to $5.20B”
Breaks if: P/E rises above 20 without earnings growth