Kraft Heinz (KHC)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$25.30+1.93%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track KHC free→Kraft Heinz invests $600 million to grow sales and profits. Free cash flow rose 16% to $3.7 billion in 2025. The company returned $2.3 billion to shareholders last year. Management keeps 2026 EPS guidance near $2.04 per share.
Profit fell 11.5% in 2025, showing growth struggles. Revenue is shrinking slightly. Key executives left recently. Inflation and new diet trends may hurt sales.
The stock trades about 21% below our fair value near $32. Analysts expect about 1% revenue decline. Our fair value is well above the Street median of $22.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS guidance falls below $1.98 for 2026
Maintain 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $1.98 to $2.10 despite challenging operating environment.
Newly stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance at $1.98 to $2.10 in 2026-Q1. Adjusted EPS declined from $2.60 in 2025 to an expected lower range in 2026, reflecting a challenging environment. The reaffirmation shows management's commitment to this target despite headwinds.
Breaks if: Free Cash Flow falls below $3.2 billion or capital returned falls below $2.0 billion in 2025
Maintain strong free cash flow generation and return capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Breaks if: Adjusted Operating Income declines more than 5% below $4.7 billion in 2025
Focus on returning the business to profitable growth through investments in marketing, sales, R&D, product superiority, and pricing.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management emphasized returning to profitable growth with a $600 million investment in marketing, sales, and R&D announced in 2025-Q4. Adjusted Operating Income declined from $5.36B in 2024-Q4 to $4.75B in 2025-Q4 (-11.5%), reflecting ongoing challenges. The trajectory shows persistent focus but mixed delivery as profitability remains pressured.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Company: 'The Company is reaffirming its 2026 outlook with Adjusted EPS expected in the range of $1.98 to $2.10.'”
“Company: 'Introduced 2026 operating plan with Adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed.'”
Management stated this priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Free Cash Flow grew from approximately $3.2B in 2024 to $3.7B in 2025 (+15.9%), with capital returned to shareholders increasing from $0.7B in 2025-Q1 to $2.3B in 2025 full year. The company is delivering on cash generation and capital return commitments with steady execution.
“Company: 'Cash from operating activities was $1.0 billion in Q1 2026.'”
“Company: 'Free Cash Flow was $3.7 billion in 2025, up 15.9%, with $2.3 billion returned to stockholders.'”
“Company: 'Year-to-date return of capital to stockholders was $1.8 billion.'”
“Company: 'Year-to-date return of capital to stockholders was $1.4 billion.'”
“Company: 'Year-to-date return of capital to stockholders was $0.7 billion.'”
“CEO: 'We are unlocking the full power of our portfolio to deliver high quality, great tasting, and affordable food.'”
“CEO: 'My number one priority is returning the business to profitable growth, requiring full focus on executing our operating plan with a $600 million investment.'”
“CEO: 'We are making strategic investments in marketing and R&D to strengthen our portfolio through product enhancements.'”
“CEO: 'Our investments in product improvements and manufacturing capabilities are paying off, driving brand and product superiority.'”
“CEO: 'We are committed to controlling the controllables and making necessary investments to deliver quality, taste, and value.'”