Mosaic Company (The) (MOS)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$21.13-0.26%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track MOS free→Mosaic is a cheap fertilizer producer with a price-to-earnings ratio near 10. The company aims to keep capital spending at $1.25 billion in 2026. Phosphate sales volumes target a recovery to 1.7-1.9 million tonnes in Q1 2026. Idling some Brazil complexes should reduce costs and improve margins.
Mosaic has missed earnings multiple times recently, including a 85% EPS miss in Q1 2026. The company faces headwinds from idling key mining complexes in Brazil. Revenue growth is expected to be weak at about 1%. Free cash flow remains negative, signaling financial stress.
The stock trades about 40% below our fair value near $36, reflecting cautious market expectations. Analysts forecast only about 1% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is well above the Street median, indicating some upside if the company recovers.
Breaks if: capital expenditures exceed $1.3 billion in 2026
Mosaic aims to maintain its capital expenditures at $1.25 billion for 2026.
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Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Mosaic has adjusted its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $1.25 billion. Despite previous guidance of $1.2-$1.3 billion, the company is behind on maintaining this target due to financial constraints, as evidenced by a net income decline from $411.4M in 2025-Q3 to -$692.4M in 2025-Q4.
“Mosaic has adjusted its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $1.25 billion.”
“Total Capital Expenditures Approx. $1.3 billion.”
“The 2025 capital expenditure outlook remains unchanged at $1.2-$1.3 billion.”
“2025 guidance maintained at $1.2-$1.3 billion.”
Breaks if: idling plan is reversed or delayed beyond 2026-Q2
Mosaic plans to idle the Araxá and Patrocínio complexes in Brazil, impacting operations.
Breaks if: phosphate sales volume falls below 1.7 million tonnes in Q1 2026
Mosaic aims to recover phosphate sales volumes to 1.7-1.9 million tonnes in Q1 2026.