Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-07-07
$266.18-1.04%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track MPC free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Marathon Petroleum keeps improving refining margins, reaching $17.74 per barrel in Q1 2026. The company plans to spend $1.5 billion on capital projects in 2026 to sustain growth. Earnings per share beat estimates with $4.07 in Q4 2025 and $1.65 in Q1 2026. These show operational strength despite a mild market pullback.
Refining margins could weaken if oil prices fall or demand slows. Capital spending may not deliver expected returns. Earnings estimates for 2027 show a decline to $23.99 from $30.45 in 2026, signaling possible profit pressure.
The stock price is about 14% above our valuation level and 13% below the Street median. Analysts expect about 1% revenue growth. Our view is cautious given the soft guidance and sector headwinds.
Breaks if: capital spending falls below $1.3 billion for 2026
Maintain a capital spending outlook of $1.5 billion for 2026, focusing on value-enhancing and sustaining capital.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. MPC maintains a capital spending outlook of $1.5 billion for 2026, focusing on value-enhancing and sustaining capital. The consistent reiteration of this outlook indicates a steady commitment to capital allocation, though financials do not yet show specific delivery against this target.
“MPC's 2026 capital spending outlook (excluding MPLX) is $1.5 billion.”
“MPC's 2026 standalone (excluding MPLX) capital spending outlook: $1.5 billion.”
“MPC's 2026 capital spending outlook (excluding MPLX) is $1.5 billion.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $25 for FY 2026
Breaks if: refining margin falls below $13 per barrel
Focus on increasing refining utilization and capturing higher margins through operational improvements.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Refining margin increased from $13.38 per barrel in 2025-Q1 to $17.74 per barrel in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in margin capture. However, refining utilization specifics for 2026-Q1 are not detailed, suggesting limited visibility into utilization improvements.
“R&M margin was $17.74 per barrel for the first quarter of 2026.”
“Full-year refining utilization of 94 percent and margin capture of 105 percent.”