Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Morgan Stanley (MS)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$193.99+4.25%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.69 → 13.79 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend raised to $1.15 per share | The firm repurchases $20 billion in shares and raises dividends to $1.15 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut or fails to reach $1.15 per share in 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large financial business with a performance-led, cyclical profile, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent results strengthening the business case, though earnings quality remains fragile.
The valuation evidence points to MS being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility because the evidence does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near-term fundamentals have been strong: revenue and earnings rose year over year through 2026-Q3, and return on tangible common equity remained above 22%. Management has consistently executed on repurchases and raised the quarterly dividend, but earnings quality is still fragile and there is some risk from recent misses across industry peers.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current level could weigh on financial firms. If sector bellwethers continue to report strong earnings and raise guidance, that could support sector momentum; execution on earnings and capital returns remains central to the multi-year view.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustained earnings execution and capital returns, with fragile earnings quality and sector conditions as key risks. Recent performance supports an intact view, but the evidence is medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Morgan Stanley's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.43 per share. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $3.0 in 2026-Q1 |
Diluted EPS: $3.03 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.43 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 14, 20263.03 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable interest rates and manageable inflation | A supporting condition in Morgan Stanley's published investment case. The stated target is Rates remain flat; inflation near 4.25% headline. | Under Pressure | Significant rate hikes or inflation spikes disrupting markets | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net revenues reach about $70.6 billion | A primary condition in Morgan Stanley's published investment case. The stated target is >= $70.6 billion. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $65 billion in 2025 | Revenue: $33.276B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $70.6 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 14, 202633,276,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execute $20 billion share repurchase program | The firm repurchases $20 billion in shares and raises dividends to $1.15 per share. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• The Board of Directors reauthorized a multi-year common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion, without a set expiration date, beginning in the third quarter of 2026.” “In addition, the Firm’s Board of Directors reauthorized a multi-year common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion, without a set expiration date, beginning in the third quarter of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.58 → $13.79 · observed estimates
$85.63B → $86.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.58 | $85,630,284,365 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.59 | $86,053,762,320 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.59 | $86,053,762,320 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.64 | $86,137,809,581 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.63 | $86,285,095,650 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.63 | $86,285,095,650 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.64 | $86,137,809,581 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.64 | $86,285,074,320 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.65 | $86,169,072,739 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.64 | $86,285,074,320 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.65 | $86,169,072,739 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.65 | $86,169,072,739 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.65 | $86,501,620,030 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.65 | $86,169,072,739 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.65 | $86,501,620,030 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.65 | $86,501,620,030 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.65 | $86,501,620,030 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.65 | $86,501,620,030 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.66 | $86,339,998,302 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.66 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.67 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.67 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.67 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.67 | $86,343,792,434 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.70 | $86,466,808,171 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.70 | $86,466,808,171 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.70 | $86,466,808,171 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.70 | $86,466,808,171 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.70 | $86,466,808,171 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.70 | $86,466,808,171 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.70 | $86,466,808,171 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.70 | $86,466,808,171 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.69 | $86,451,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.69 | $86,451,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.69 | $86,451,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.69 | $86,451,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.69 | $86,451,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.69 | $86,451,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.69 | $86,451,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.69 | $86,451,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.67 | $86,344,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.67 | $86,344,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.67 | $86,344,922,908 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.72 | $86,355,064,756 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.71 | $86,355,064,756 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.71 | $86,355,064,756 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.71 | $86,359,979,317 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.70 | $86,359,739,968 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.69 | $86,373,476,810 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.69 | $86,373,476,810 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.69 | $86,373,476,810 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.70 | $86,518,023,809 | 17 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.71 | $86,579,078,042 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.67 | $86,459,837,986 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.70 | $86,629,162,303 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.70 | $86,629,162,303 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.69 | $86,581,741,250 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.69 | $86,581,741,250 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.69 | $86,581,741,250 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.69 | $86,581,741,250 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.71 | $86,727,244,547 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.77 | $86,823,443,692 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.77 | $86,823,443,692 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.77 | $86,823,443,692 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.76 | $86,815,513,787 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.76 | $86,878,566,419 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.76 | $86,878,566,419 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.76 | $86,878,566,419 | 17 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.76 | $86,893,439,602 | 17 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.78 | $86,903,767,622 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.78 | $86,903,767,622 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.78 | $86,903,767,622 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.78 | $86,903,767,622 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.78 | $86,903,767,622 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.78 | $86,903,767,622 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.78 | $86,903,767,622 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.78 | $86,911,230,722 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.78 | $86,963,730,722 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.79 | $86,944,055,271 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.79 | $86,944,055,271 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.79 | $86,944,055,271 | 17 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 10 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.