Morgan Stanley (MS)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$217.72+0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers
MS — dividend update
Dated 2026-02-11
Other Events Morgan Stanley (the “Firm”) today announced that the Compensation, Management Development and Succession Committee of the Firm's Board of Directors (the “Compensation Committee”) has determined in consultation with the Firm's Board of Directors the 2025 compensation for Edward Pick, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) of the Firm. The Compensation Committee based its decision of Mr. Pick’s 2025 compensation on its assessment of his outstanding performance during his seco…
Why it matters: Keeping or exceeding this EPS level would show strong earnings and good use of capital.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS reported above $3.46, confirming strong earnings growth.
Worry ifQ3 EPS is below $3.40. This shows there may be earnings pressure.
Why it matters: Expanding the share buyback program can increase earnings per share. It can also raise investor confidence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a share repurchase program increase by more than $1 billion.
Worry ifNo announcement or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Keeping the SCB at 4.3% shows stability. It helps with planning for growth.
Supportive ifThe SCB remains at 4.3% after the next Federal Reserve review.
Worry ifThe SCB is above 4.3%. This means there is more regulatory pressure.
Why it matters: A lower expense efficiency ratio means better cost control. It shows better operations.
Supportive ifExpense efficiency ratio drops below 65% for the next quarter.
Worry ifExpense efficiency ratio worsens to above 70% for the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $282 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,883 loss on $10,000 · 18.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Wealth Management is key for growth. Consistent revenues above $8 billion show strength in this segment.
Supportive ifWealth Management net revenues are over $8 billion for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifWealth Management net revenues fall below $7.5 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher credit loss provisions can show that loans are performing worse. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ2 provision for credit losses exceeds $100 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 provision for credit losses is below $50 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the financial sector falls below average, it may mean trouble for Morgan Stanley.
Worry ifFinancial sector revenue growth falls below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifFinancial sector revenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Wealth Management is a key growth area. Strong inflows indicate client confidence and business momentum.
Supportive ifWealth Management adds net new assets over $148 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifWealth Management adds net new assets below $100 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Share repurchases show a commitment to giving money back to shareholders. This can help investor confidence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of share repurchases of at least $1 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of share repurchases in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This program shows that Morgan Stanley cares about giving money back to shareholders. Good execution can make investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifMorgan Stanley repurchases $1.5 billion of its stock in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo stock repurchases occur in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show that the company is strong and cares about giving money back.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a $1.15 dividend in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend remains at $1.00 or is cut in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong earnings growth backs the firm's growth story and shows good management.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenues exceed $21 billion.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenues fall below $20 billion.