Morgan Stanley (MS)
NYSEFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$222.07-0.01%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $222.07. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $222 MS trades at 20× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median, but our blended $183 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $187–$255. Note: our $183 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($187–$255). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $238 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$187.00 – $255.00 (median $221.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $221.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $56.12 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $134.86 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $245.40 | 24.0 | 10.21 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $191.35 | 2.6 | 73.21 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $265.35 | 24.0 | 11.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $115.42 | 3.0 | 38.44 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $230.03 | 20.8 | 11.04 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $88.46 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $185.34 | 16.8 | 11.04 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $276.65 | 24.0 | 11.51 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $331.29 | 24.0 | 13.78 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $216.55 | 2.6 | 82.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $539.64 | 24.0 | 22.45 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $195.33 | 3.0 | 65.06 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $467.80 | 20.8 | 22.45 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $376.92 | 16.8 | 22.45 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $404.68 | 24.0 | 16.84 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $235.18 | 2.6 | 89.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $713.67 | 24.0 | 29.69 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $258.33 | 3.0 | 86.04 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $618.67 | 20.8 | 29.69 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $498.48 | 16.8 | 29.69 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.