Morgan Stanley (MS)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$217.72+0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MS
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $218 MS trades at 18× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median, but our blended $193 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $187–$262. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $231 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $240.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $56.37 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $144.34 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $163.95 | 2.2 | 74.85 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$187.00 – $262.00 (median $240.50) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-08-03
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $257.15 |
| 20.8 |
| 12.37 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $104.73 | 2.7 | 39.25 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $224.02 | 18.1 | 12.37 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $94.14 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $214.83 | 17.4 | 12.37 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $271.88 | 20.8 | 13.08 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $189.96 | 2.2 | 86.72 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $480.22 | 20.8 | 23.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $186.49 | 2.7 | 69.89 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $418.35 | 18.1 | 23.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $401.19 | 17.4 | 23.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $209.55 | 2.2 | 95.67 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $631.10 | 20.8 | 30.36 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $245.08 | 2.7 | 91.85 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $549.79 | 18.1 | 30.36 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $527.24 | 17.4 | 30.36 | Analyst | high |