Philip Morris International (PM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-07-07
$187.75+1.62%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading PM? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track PM free→NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading PM? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track PM free→Philip Morris grows smoke-free products fast, with 43% of revenue in Q1 2026. Adjusted EPS rose 16% in Q1 and full-year growth is guided at 9% to 11%. Capital spending stays disciplined at $1.5 billion, focused on smoke-free business.
Growth in smoke-free products may slow or face regulatory hurdles. Capital allocation could be pressured by impairments. EPS growth may fall short of 9% to 11% guidance amid currency or market headwinds.
The price is about 13% above our fair value near $165, reflecting roughly 7% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is below the Street median, indicating some caution versus more optimistic views.
Breaks if: adjusted diluted EPS growth excluding currency falls below 7% in 2026-FY
Target adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 9% to 11% annually, excluding currency impacts, supported by operational improvements and growth in smoke-free products.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS grew 16.0% in 2026-Q1, with full-year guidance targeting 9% to 11% growth excluding currency. Management is delivering adjusted EPS growth consistent with their stated targets.
“Adjusted diluted EPS grew 16.0% in Q1 2026; full-year guidance of 9% to 11% adjusted diluted EPS growth excluding currency.”
“Adjusted diluted EPS grew 14.8% in 2025; guidance for 2026 adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9% to 11% excluding currency.”
“Adjusted diluted EPS grew 20.1% in Q2 2025; guidance for 2026 adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9% to 11% excluding currency.”
“Adjusted diluted EPS grew 12.7% in Q1 2025; guidance for 2026 adjusted diluted EPS growth of 9% to 11% excluding currency.”
Breaks if: CAPEX falls outside $1.4 to $1.6 billion range or shifts away from smoke-free focus in 2026-FY
Sustain capital expenditures in the range of $1.4 to $1.6 billion annually, predominantly supporting investments in the smoke-free product business.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Capital expenditures are guided at $1.4 to $1.6 billion annually, predominantly supporting the smoke-free business. This guidance has been consistent and management is maintaining disciplined capital allocation focused on smoke-free investments.
“Capital expenditures of $1.4 to $1.6 billion, predominantly supporting the smoke-free business.”
“Capital expenditures of $1.4 to $1.6 billion, predominantly due to investments supporting the smoke-free business.”
“Capital expenditures of around $1.6 billion, almost entirely due to investments supporting the smoke-free business.”
“Capital expenditures of around $1.5 billion, including further investments in ZYN capacity in the U.S.”
Breaks if: organic net revenue growth falls below 4% in 2026-FY
Sustain organic net revenue growth in the range of 5% to 7% per year, driven by pricing and volume growth in smoke-free and combustible products.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Organic net revenue grew 2.7% in 2026-Q1, following 6% to 8% growth guidance for 2025 and 5% to 7% guidance for 2026. Management's trajectory is consistent with delivering moderate organic revenue growth aligned with stated targets.
“Net revenues increased by 2.7% organically in Q1 2026; full-year guidance of 5% to 7% organic net revenue growth.”
“Net revenue growth of around 6% to 8% on an organic basis for 2025.”
“Net revenue growth of around 6% to 8% on an organic basis for 2025.”
“Net revenue growth of around 6% to 8% on an organic basis for 2025.”
Breaks if: YoY smoke-free shipment volume growth falls below 10% in 2026-FY
Continue to expand the smoke-free product portfolio globally, increase shipment volumes, market share, and profitability, including IQOS, nicotine pouches, and e-vapor products.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The smoke-free business shipment volumes grew from 14.4% in 2025-Q1 to 12.8% in 2025-Q4, with net revenues increasing 15.0% and gross profit up 20.3% in 2025. Smoke-free products accounted for 43% of total net revenues in 2026-Q1. Management consistently emphasizes expanding smoke-free products globally, and the financials show delivering growth and increasing contribution to revenues and profits.
“Outstanding delivery from IQOS driving very good growth; smoke-free business accounted for 43% of total net revenues.”
“Smoke-free business delivered strong performance with shipment volumes up 12.8%, net revenues growing 15.0%, and gross profit increasing 20.3%.”
“Smoke-free business accounted for 41% of total net revenues and over 42% of gross profit; shipment volumes up 16.6%.”
“Smoke-free business accounted for 41% of total net revenues; shipment volumes up 11.8%, net revenues growing 15.2%.”
“Smoke-free business accounting for 42% of total net revenues and 44% of total gross profit; shipment volumes up 14.4%.”
“Smoke-free business accounted for 40% of total net revenues; full-year net revenues increased by 14.2%.”