Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$283.07+0.17%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track UNP free→Union Pacific aims for mid-single-digit EPS growth. It beat EPS by 2.4% in Q1 2026. The merger with Norfolk Southern could boost growth and pricing. Rail volumes are rising, supporting higher earnings.
Merger uncertainty could hurt growth and cause operational risks. EPS growth is behind management's high-single to low-double digit target. Economic weakness may reduce customer demand and pricing power.
The price is about 13% above our fair value near $250. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median, which is more optimistic.
Breaks if: Service levels decline causing customer loss next year
Ensure strong service to meet customer demand despite a muted economic forecast.
Breaks if: YoY EPS growth falls below 6% in FY26
Focus on achieving earnings per share growth consistent with the 3-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digit.
Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. EPS was 3.01 in 2025-Q3 and 3.15 in 2025-Q2, showing limited progress towards the high-single to low-double digit CAGR target. Management's consistent focus on this target has yet to yield significant EPS growth.
Breaks if: Merger fails or faces major regulatory or operational setbacks
Ensure strong service to meet customer demand despite a muted economic forecast.
Breaks if: Pricing growth falls below inflation rate over next year
Implement pricing strategies that exceed inflationary pressures.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Earnings per share growth of mid-single digit; consistent with attaining 3-year CAGR target.”
“Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target.”
“Affirming 2025 Outlook: Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target.”
“Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target.”
“Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target.”