Vistra Corp. (VST)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-07-07
$155.73-0.95%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track VST free→Vistra grows revenue about 19% next year. Free cash flow is $4.3 billion. It adds 4.5 GW capacity to meet demand. Partnerships boost growth in AI infrastructure.
Profit margins could shrink if costs rise. Free cash flow might miss $3.9 billion. Growth could slow if demand weakens.
The price is about 5% below our fair value near $163. Analysts expect 19% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median.
Breaks if: Capacity growth stalls or falls short of 4.5 GW by mid-2026
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow to strengthen financial performance.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.05B in 2025-Q1 to $4.95B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress. However, the focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and FCF remains a recurring priority with mixed results.
Breaks if: FCF falls below $3.9 billion in FY26
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow to strengthen financial performance.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.05B in 2025-Q1 to $4.95B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress. However, the focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and FCF remains a recurring priority with mixed results.
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below $6.8 billion in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow to strengthen financial performance.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.05B in 2025-Q1 to $4.95B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress. However, the focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and FCF remains a recurring priority with mixed results.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Reaffirmed 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges.”
“Raised the midpoint and narrowed the guidance range for Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG.”
“Reaffirmed 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges.”
“Reaffirmed 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges.”
“Reaffirmed 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges.”
“Raised the midpoint and narrowed the guidance range for Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG.”
“Reaffirmed 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges.”
“Reaffirmed 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges.”
“Reaffirmed 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges.”
“Raised the midpoint and narrowed the guidance range for Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG.”
“Reaffirmed 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges.”
“Reaffirmed 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA 1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG 1 guidance ranges.”