ExxonMobil (XOM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-07-07
$141.69+3.85%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track XOM free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Exxon is growing oil and gas production with new projects. It plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026. LNG exports rose 5% in early 2026. Profit margins remain solid despite cost pressures.
Regulatory and legal challenges could raise costs and limit growth. Margins have already been cut in half. Share repurchases depend on stable market conditions.
The price is about 16% above our fair value near $121. Analysts expect about 10% revenue growth. Our fair value is well below the Street median.
Breaks if: Repurchases fall significantly below $20 billion in 2026
Continue share repurchase program on pace to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Share repurchases totaled $4.9 billion in 2026-Q1, consistent with the pace to reach $20 billion in 2026. Prior quarters show similar quarterly repurchase levels and full-year 2025 repurchases of $20 billion. The trajectory is delivering on the repurchase commitment.
“Shareholder distributions of $9.2 billion included $4.9 billion of share repurchases, on pace with plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026.”
“For the full-year 2025, the company distributed $37.2 billion to shareholders, including $20.0 billion of share repurchases, consistent with previously announced plans.”
“Shareholder distributions totaled $9.4 billion, including $5.1 billion of share repurchases, consistent with the company's announced plans.”
“Shareholder distributions totaled $9.2 billion, including $5.0 billion of share repurchases, consistent with the company's announced plans.”
“Shareholder distributions of $9.1 billion included $4.8 billion of share repurchases, consistent with the company's announced plans.”
“Shareholder distributions of $9.5 billion included $5.1 billion of share repurchases.”
“Returned $9.8 billion to shareholders in the quarter.”
Breaks if: LNG exports fail to grow by 5% relative to 2025
Grow U.S. LNG exports by 5% relative to 2025 through first LNG production at Golden Pass Train 1 and ramp-up of LNG export cargoes.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1 and restated from 2025-Q4. The company achieved first LNG production at Golden Pass Train 1 in 2026-Q1, increasing U.S. LNG exports by 5% relative to 2025. The prior quarter noted mechanical completion and expected first cargoes. The trajectory shows initial delivery of this export growth priority.
“Achieved first LNG at Golden Pass Train 1, increasing U.S. LNG exports by 5% relative to 2025.”
“Golden Pass LNG, where Train 1 achieved mechanical completion late in the year, with first cargoes expected in the first quarter.”
Breaks if: Production falls below 4.6 million barrels per day
Grow advantaged volumes in Permian, Guyana, and LNG, and start up key projects ahead of schedule and under budget to increase production and earnings.
Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company reported production records in Guyana and Permian, with net production increasing from about 3.8 million barrels per day in 2024-Q1 to 4.6 million in 2025-Q1. Key projects like Yellowtail started early and under budget. The trajectory shows delivering growth through advantaged volumes and project execution.
“Guyana setting a new quarterly production record of more than 900 thousand gross barrels of oil per day.”
“Yellowtail, the fourth and largest Guyana development, started up four months ahead of schedule and under budget.”
“Started up eight of 10 key projects to date in 2025; remaining projects on track.”
“Highest second-quarter Upstream production since the merger of Exxon and Mobil more than 25 years ago.”
“Advantaged volume growth in the Permian and Guyana, additional structural cost savings and favorable timing effects.”
Breaks if: Margins fall below half of recent levels