Reading NCRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NCRA free→Reading NCRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NCRA free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NCRA trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 78% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak and earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.12 NCRA trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $0.53 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 78% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.78x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$367.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$981.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,431.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Strategic partnership with Phoenix MGMT
Strategic partnership aligns with growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 22, 2026, Nocera, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Equity Purchase Facility Agreement (the “EPFA”) with a certain institutional investor (the “Investor”), pursuant to which the Company has the right, but not the obligation, to issue and sell to the Investor, from time to time during a 24-month commitment period commencing on the date of the EPFA, up to $100,000,000 in aggregate amount of newly issued shares (the “Advance Shares”) of the C…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NCRA NOCERA INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Enter a strategic advisory agreement with Phoenix MGMT for execution support.
Take actions to meet Nasdaq's minimum stockholders' equity and bid price requirements.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth in
Other Events. On May 18, 2026, Nocera, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Strategic Advisory Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Phoenix MGMT & Consulting LLC (“Phoenix”), a Delaware limited liability company, pursuant to which Phoenix will provide the Company with strategic advisory and execution support services on a non-exclusive basis. The initial term of the Agreement is ninety (90) days, subject to extension by mutual written agreement of the parties. Either party may terminate the Agreem…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth in
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On April 17, 2026, Nocera, Inc. (the “Company”) received a letter from the Listing Qualifications Staff of The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that, based upon the Company’s stockholders’ equity as reported in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Form 10-K”) , the Company no longer meets the minimum stockholders’ equity requirement…