Smurfit Westrock (SW)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-07-07
$44.99-1.42%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track SW free→Smurfit Westrock aims to deliver adjusted EBITDA near $5.15 billion in 2026. North American sales, its largest market, remain a key focus with $4.4 billion in Q1. The company has a robust quality profile and is working to improve execution. Capital spending is steady to support growth.
The company has missed earnings in recent quarters and faces a selloff due to delisting from the London Stock Exchange. North American sales declined in Q1. Adjusted EBITDA is behind target and management progress is weak. The stock trades expensive with elevated risk.
The market prices in about 4% revenue growth and values the stock slightly above our $44.79 fair value. Our fair value is 16% below the Street median, reflecting skepticism on execution and growth. The recent selloff and delisting news are partly priced in.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $5.0 billion in FY26
Focus on achieving the Adjusted EBITDA target range of $5.0 billion to $5.3 billion for the fiscal year.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $1,076 million in 2026-Q1, below the quarterly guidance range of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“CEO: 'We re-affirm our previous expectation of delivering Adjusted EBITDA of between $5.0 billion and $5.3 billion.'”
“CEO: 'We currently expect to deliver Adjusted EBITDA of between $5.0 billion and $5.3 billion.'”
“CEO: 'Our current estimate for a full year Adjusted EBITDA is between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion.'”
“CEO: 'We expect third quarter Adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $1.3 billion.'”
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $2.6 billion or falls below $2.2 billion in FY26
Breaks if: North American sales decline below $4.2 billion per quarter
Leverage the North American market as the largest value creation opportunity with improved demand and pricing.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. North America net sales were $4,407 million in 2026-Q1, down from $4,578 million in 2025-Q1. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“CEO: 'Our North American business represents our largest value creation opportunity.'”
“CEO: 'We are focused on unlocking the full potential of North America.'”