Reading MERC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MERC free→Reading MERC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MERC free→NASDAQMaterialsPaper & Paper ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, MERC is typical. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.46x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.51 → $-0.62 (-21.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$318.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$807.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,174.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Manage operating income
Tough markets may hinder operating income management.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. On May 7, 2026, Mercer International Inc. (the “Company”) announced by pres…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MERC MERCER INTERNATIONAL INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | — | high |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to stabilize per unit fiber costs amid improved availability and strong demand.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management has consistently highlighted the challenge of stabilizing fiber costs amid supply constraints and strong demand. Despite these efforts, the financials show a net income decline from $101.8M in 2024-Q4 to -$52M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in cost stabilization.
“For Q2 2026, we expect per unit fiber costs to stabilize...”
“We expect per unit fiber costs to increase due to supply constraints.”
“We expect higher per unit fiber costs due to supply constraints.”
“We expect modestly higher per unit fiber costs due to reduced logging.”
Focus on improving operating income, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income improved from -$278.5M in 2025-Q4 to -$32.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating some progress. However, the persistent negative figures highlight ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.
Management is focused on addressing the decline in net income over recent quarters.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income has fluctuated, with a significant drop from $188.7M in 2025-Q4 to -$52M in 2026-Q1. This reflects ongoing financial challenges, despite some improvement from -$80.8M in 2025-Q3.
Threatens: Address net income decline
Liquidity concerns directly impact net income objectives.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Effective May 4, 2026, certain German subsidiaries (the “ Loan Parties ”) of Mercer International Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a Waiver and Consent Request Letter (the “ Waiver ”) with respect to that certain revolving facility agreement dated September 15, 2022, as amended and restated by an amendment and restatement agreement dated March 22, 2023 and as further amended, amended and restated, or otherwise supplemented from time to time (the…
of this Current Report shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. On February 12, 2026, Mercer International Inc. (the “Company”) announced b…
of this Current Report shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. On November 6, 2025, Mercer International Inc. (the “Company”) announced by…
of this Current Report shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. On July 31, 2025, Mercer International Inc. (the “Company”) announced by pr…
“Operating income was -$32.9M in Q1 2026.”
“Operating income was -$278.5M in Q4 2025.”
“Operating income was -$67.6M in Q3 2025.”
“Net income was -$52M in Q1 2026.”
“Net income was $188.7M in Q4 2025.”
“Net income was -$80.8M in Q3 2025.”